Five dollar gas on-deck
MARKETS OPEN | May 11, 2026
The S&P 500 rose 0.84% to 7,399 on Friday and the Nasdaq surged to a record 26,247 — its sixth consecutive week of gains, the longest such streak since 2024 — even as crude oil hovers near $95 a barrel, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, and Wall Street quietly coined a new trade for the moment: NACHO, or “Not A Chance Hormuz Opens.” Consumer sentiment, meanwhile, told a different story entirely: the University of Michigan survey fell to a record low, and according to J.P. Morgan, the risk of five-dollar gasoline can no longer be dismissed. The hard data and the human experience of this economy are pulling in opposite directions.
Table of Contents
Market Roundup
Individual Movers
A/I Forcasted Charts: DELL, DIS, DKNG
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Weekly Link Roundup
The week’s defining story was AI infrastructure, where a blowout AMD AMD 0.00%↑ earnings report sent the stock up 18% and rippled through the sector like a current. Micron MU 0.00%↑ jumped 25% over five days and another 16% on Friday alone, extending a 60% year-to-date gain as analysts described the DRAM supercycle as still only in its “second or third inning.” Intel surged 14% — aided late in the session by news of a chip-supply agreement with Apple AAPL 0.00%↑ — while Qualcomm QCOM 0.00%↑ gained 8% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index finished the week up 65% since late March, trading at a 53x multiple, more than double the S&P 500. AMD has now doubled year-to-date and is up 325% over the past year, fueling the inevitable comparisons to the dot-com era. The counterargument gaining traction on Wall Street: this time the beneficiaries are not startups burning cash in search of a business model, but capital-intensive incumbents sitting squarely in the path of the $150 billion-plus annual AI infrastructure spend being committed by the Metas and Alphabets of the world.
Investors are drawing a hard line between the companies that sell picks and shovels and those still trying to prove the gold is embedded in the A/I theme. CoreWeave CRWV 0.00%↑ dropped 11%. Cloudflare NET 0.00%↑ posted a beat but announced it is cutting 20% of its global workforce — more than 1,100 people — framing the move not as cost reduction but as the first full restructuring of a major tech company around an agentic AI operating model; its shares fell 24%. Upwork UPWK 0.00%↑ followed with a 24% workforce reduction alongside a revenue miss and a weak forward guide, sending shares down 17%.
Elsewhere in earnings, Dell DELL 0.00%↑ surged 13% after first-quarter results beat estimates and the company cited a $50 billion AI server backlog with gross margins expanding from 6.4% to 15%. Disney DIS 0.00%↑ gained 8% on Thursday on a solid beat and strong entertainment results — still slightly underperforming the S&P 500 from its 52-week low. Expedia EXPE 0.00%↑ fell 9% despite 15% revenue growth after issuing a cautious gross bookings outlook for Q2, a signal that the consumer may be starting to pull back on travel as energy costs seep through household budgets. DraftKings DKNG 0.00%↑ beat on sales and profit and flagged a 90% decline in customer acquisition costs since launching prediction market products, opening the door to states — California, Texas, Florida — where online sports betting remains off limits. Rocket Lab RKLB 0.00%↑ surged 34% after reporting Q1 revenue of $200 million ahead of expectations, with 70 launches scheduled in its pipeline — more than its entire 2025 output — as investors increasingly cast it as a credible alternative to SpaceX; the stock is up over 350% in the past year. IREN IREN 0.00%↑ jumped 7.6% after securing a five-year, $3.4 billion AI cloud services contract with Nvidia to manage GPU infrastructure for the chipmaker’s internal research workloads.
On the macro side, April’s jobs report printed 115,000 new payrolls — the strongest two-month gain since 2024 — but the unemployment rate held at 4.3% and the data was solid enough to confirm rather than complicate the Fed’s paralysis. The market has effectively closed the book on rate cuts for 2026, pricing roughly a 75% chance of no moves between now and December. The more pressing question heading into next week’s CPI print is not whether prices are cooling, but whether a sustained reinflation impulse — energy costs working their way downstream into fertilizer, food, airline surcharges and logistics — starts to shift the odds toward the next move being up. Kevin Warsh takes the helm at the Fed imminently; his first meeting may prove more consequential than markets are currently pricing.
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